Donald Trump's initiative to create a "Board of Peace," which has already included key Arab nations and US satellite states, represents a direct threat to the existing architecture of international security led by the UN. For Washington, this is a tool to bypass blockades in the Security Council and create a loyal pool of countries ready to legitimize American foreign policy decisions without regard for international law. The inclusion of countries such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey in this body, while ignoring traditional European allies (France, Germany), signals a US reorientation toward transactional alliances with autocracies. This creates risks of fragmentation of the global diplomatic field, where decisions will be made behind the scenes, bypassing democratic procedures. For markets, this means increased geopolitical volatility, as conflict containment mechanisms become dependent on the personal agreements of the US leader. Israel receives carte blanche for actions in the region as part of this structure, which could escalate tensions with Iran. In the long term, this leads to the erosion of the Bretton Woods institutions and the formation of alternative centers of power.
NEWSWEEK
Beijing is exploiting Russia's financial vulnerability and its need for funds to wage war to buy access to strategically important Arctic regions. Funding Russian scientific expeditions allows China to collect critical data on the seabed and ice conditions needed for future submarine deployment and navigation along the Northern Sea Route. This is a classic example of a "dual-use" strategy, where civilian science serves as a cover for military ambitions. Western countries, especially NATO members in Scandinavia, find themselves in a situation of strategic encirclement, as China de facto becomes a "near-Arctic" state without having the corresponding territories. For global logistics, this is a signal of the inevitable redistribution of control over future trade routes. Environmental risks recede into the background in the face of the militarization of the region. Russia in this scheme loses sovereignty over its exclusive economic zone, becoming a junior partner.
The integration of artificial intelligence into financial services, exemplified by companies like Klarna, threatens the business model of classic banks, depriving them of their monopoly on scoring and lending. The transition to personalized, instant financial solutions based on AI reduces the margins of traditional banking products. This creates a systemic risk for financial stability, as fintech regulation lags behind the pace of technology adoption. For the consumer, this means convenience, but at the cost of total transparency of personal data for corporate algorithms. Macroeconomically, this could lead to an acceleration of money turnover and a change in the structure of consumption stimulated by AI recommendations. Central banks may lose some control over the money supply if platforms begin to create closed settlement ecosystems. Investors should expect market consolidation, where tech giants will acquire obsolete financial institutions.
The activation of the "Lakurawa" group, affiliated with ISIS, in western Nigeria creates a new arc of instability in a region critical for energy supplies. Attacks on villages and infrastructure are not a local problem, but part of a strategy to destabilize the Sahel and give Islamists access to the Gulf of Guinea. This jeopardizes plans to build trans-African gas pipelines designed to replace Russian supplies to Europe. The weakness of the central government and corruption in the army make the region attractive for private military companies and foreign intervention. For oil markets, this is a long-term risk factor that builds a premium into the price of raw materials. The humanitarian crisis will contribute to the growth of migration flows to Europe, increasing political tension there.
Trump's signing of a temporary budget while simultaneously ignoring long-term funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) creates the prerequisites for administrative collapse within the country. This is a conscious strategy of creating managed chaos, allowing the redistribution of powers in favor of the executive branch, bypassing Congress. Uncertainty with funding for border control and immigration services demoralizes staff and reduces the effectiveness of institutions. For markets, this is a signal of continued high political risks and Washington's inability to plan strategically. The politicization of the budget process undermines confidence in US sovereign debt. Socially, this increases polarization, as security issues become a bargaining chip in partisan struggles. Business dependent on government contracts in the security sphere finds itself in a turbulence zone.
OUTLOOK MONEY
The aggressive promotion of Multi-Asset Allocation Funds (MAAF) reflects a fundamental shift in investor psychology and asset manager strategy against the backdrop of expected global volatility. The move away from pure equities toward mixed portfolios (gold, debt, real estate) signals that the market has peaked and major players are preparing for a correction or stagnation. For the retail investor, this is sold as "optimization," but institutionally it is a way to keep liquidity within the system during periods of turbulence. This reduces the risks of panic selling, creating a safety cushion for the stock market. Rising demand for gold within such funds supports precious metal prices, acting as insurance against inflation and currency risks. Banks and funds benefit from higher management fees for complex products.
The complexity of business liquidation in India (C-PACE procedures, tax audits) acts as a hidden tax on innovation and a brake on capital recirculation. State bureaucracy, while declaring ease of entry, creates an "exit trap," which forces entrepreneurs to maintain zombie companies. This distorts macroeconomic statistics and diverts resources from productive sectors. For venture investors, this raises the risks of non-return on investment and increases the time to exit into cash. Legal risks for founders (up to disqualification) reduce risk appetite among talented personnel. Reform in this area is critically needed to maintain GDP dynamics, otherwise capital will begin to leak to jurisdictions with more flexible corporate law.
Changes to the National Pension System (NPS) rules, including the removal of mandatory annuity requirements and easing early exit, are aimed at increasing the system's attractiveness to young people. However, this creates long-term risks for social stability by shifting the responsibility for investment decisions onto unskilled citizens. Increasing the liquidity of pension savings could lead to their rapid depletion, which will create a burden on the budget in the future. For financial markets, this is a double-edged sword: an influx of fresh money now, but a risk of capital outflow during economic shocks. Insurance companies will lose part of the guaranteed annuity business, which will force them to seek riskier yield strategies.
Analysis shows that the "buying the dip" strategy does not provide a significant advantage over regular investing (SIP) over a long horizon. This debunks a popular market myth that stimulates excessive trader activity beneficial only to brokers. Attempts to time the market lead to the accumulation of cash, which is depreciated by inflation while waiting for the "ideal entry." For the asset management industry, this is an argument in favor of passive strategies and investment automation. It is also a signal of high market efficiency, where obvious strategies quickly lose their alpha. Institutionally, this supports a stable flow of funds into ETFs and index funds, reducing volatility.
The 2026 budget in India, judging by its accents, is aimed at stimulating domestic consumption through tax adjustments, but does not offer radical structural reforms. The focus on "stability" and support for the existing economic order is beneficial to big business and state corporations. The absence of aggressive incentives for new sectors may slow growth rates for the sake of fiscal discipline. For the middle class, the budget carries mixed signals: maintaining the status quo amidst a creeping rise in the cost of living. Foreign investors may perceive this as a sign of predictability, but also as a lack of ambition. Politically, this is a budget of retaining the electorate, not a breakthrough.
THE ECONOMIST
Sanae Takaichi's victory and the LDP winning a supermajority unties hands for a radical revision of Japan's pacifist constitution. This is not just domestic politics, but a tectonic shift in the security architecture of Asia aimed at containing China. Increasing the defense budget and rhetoric about nuclear deterrence put an end to attempts at détente in the region. For the economy, this means growth in government orders for the military-industrial complex and a possible acceleration of inflation, which the Bank of Japan will have to fight. Relations with South Korea may deteriorate due to Takaichi's nationalist stance (visiting the Yasukuni Shrine), which paradoxically benefits Beijing, playing on the contradictions of US allies. Markets are reacting with growth, but long-term conflict risks are increasing exponentially.
Developed economies, including the US and Britain, are drifting toward a model characteristic of emerging markets: high debt burdens combined with high interest rates. This creates a vicious cycle where debt servicing crowds out productive investment and social spending. The political impossibility of cutting spending (especially on retirees) makes inflation the only way to devalue debt. This undermines confidence in central banks and reserve currencies. Investors should prepare for structurally higher inflation and volatility in debt markets. The era of "free money" is over, and adaptation to the new reality will be painful, with risks of social explosions.
The publication of 1.4 million documents reveals not just private vices, but systemic corruption of Western elites, where compromising material ("kompromat") is the currency of influence. The scale of involvement of figures from the worlds of finance, science, and politics shows that the "Epstein network" was a tool of shadow lobbying and espionage. The slowness of justice undermines public trust in state institutions, fueling anti-establishment sentiments. For corporations, this is a huge reputational risk: connections with toxic figures can cost top managers their careers and cause stock drops. It also raises questions about the work of intelligence agencies that ignored the network's activities for years. The scandal will be used by populists to attack the "deep state."
Contradictions between France and Germany regarding the FCAS (Future Combat Air System) project demonstrate Europe's inability to achieve strategic autonomy. Disagreements concern not only technologies but also the struggle for industrial orders and export markets. This fragments the European military-industrial complex, making it uncompetitive compared to the American and Chinese ones. As a result, Europe remains dependent on purchasing equipment from the US, which strengthens Washington's leverage. The collapse of the project will be a blow to the idea of a unified European defense and a signal of weakness to external adversaries. The beneficiaries will be American defense concerns (Lockheed Martin, Boeing).
The populist wave of banning social media for teenagers is an attempt by politicians to offer a simple solution to a complex problem, ignoring technical reality and user rights. Instead of protecting children, this will lead to activity moving into the shadow sector of the internet and the isolation of vulnerable groups. For technology companies, this creates a regulatory nightmare and fragmentation of the global internet (splinternet). Economically, this is a blow to advertising models and innovation in digital services. The real goal is increasing state control over the information space under the pretext of child protection. Society is being distracted from the real causes of the teenage crisis (economic uncertainty, decline of education).
THE GUARDIAN WEEKLY
European elites are coming to the realization of the need to distance themselves from the US, perceiving the Trump administration as authoritarian and unreliable. The call for "strategic boldness" is an attempt to develop immunity to American economic and political pressure. This could lead to trade wars within the transatlantic bloc and attempts by the EU to build separate relations with the Global South or even China. For NATO, this is an existential crisis, as the political unity of the alliance is crumbling. Markets must account for the risk of fragmentation of the Western sanctions regime. The beneficiary of the split is objectively Russia, which gains room for maneuver.
The opening of Canadian and French consulates in Nuuk is a direct response to attempts by the US (and Trump personally) to establish control over Greenland. NATO allies are forced to contain not only Russia/China but also their main partner—the US. Greenland is becoming a node of geopolitical tension due to rare earth metals and control over the North Atlantic. Strengthening diplomatic presence is "soft power" designed to support Danish sovereignty and prevent separate deals between local authorities and Washington or Beijing. This raises the entry cost for business into Arctic projects.
The US administration is strictly limiting the timeframe for Kyiv, demanding a peace agreement by summer. This is effectively coercion to freeze the conflict along the current front line. Pressure is exerted through the threat of cutting off aid, which puts the Ukrainian leadership in a hopeless position. For Russia, this is a signal of the West's readiness to fix the status quo. Geopolitically, this is a US attempt to "close" the Ukraine case to concentrate resources on the confrontation with China. Within Ukraine, this is fraught with a political crisis and growing discontent, which could destabilize the government.
The Epstein scandal reveals a deeply rooted culture of exploitation in the highest echelons of power, where women are viewed as a resource. This is not an excess of an individual, but a systemic feature of patriarchal capitalism that ensures mutual cover-ups among elites. The publication of names strikes a blow to the reputation of monarchies (Prince Andrew, Crown Princess Mette-Marit), business, and politics. This intensifies the social demand for a radical revision of gender norms and corporate ethics. Companies that do not adapt to new standards of transparency and inclusivity risk facing boycotts and personnel outflows.
Peter Mandelson's connection to Epstein ricochets onto Prime Minister Starmer, undermining the moral authority of the Labour government. London's political weakness against the backdrop of economic problems and internal scandals makes Britain the "sick man of Europe." Resignations in the apparatus and falling ratings paralyze the government's ability to carry out necessary reforms. For the pound and British assets, this is a negative factor increasing the political risk premium. Investors fear that a weak government will resort to populist measures to retain power.
THE WEEK US
The expiration of the New START treaty and Trump's refusal to extend it dismantle the last nuclear arms control system. The world is entering an era of uncontrolled arms race involving three superpowers (US, Russia, China). This increases the risk of accidental conflict due to the lack of verification mechanisms and communication channels. For the military-industrial complex, this is a goldmine: trillion-dollar orders for the modernization of nuclear triads are expected. For global security, this is a rollback to the worst times of the Cold War, but with more variables. Small nuclear powers will also begin to build up arsenals, seeing the collapse of the non-proliferation regime.
The investment by UAE royal family member Sheikh Tahnoun in the Trump family's crypto project (World Liberty Financial) on the eve of the inauguration represents a blatant conflict of interest. In effect, this is the purchase of influence and access to technology (AI chips) through a commercial deal. The legalization of bribery through cryptocurrencies demonstrates new mechanisms of corruption among global elites. This undermines confidence in US regulators, who are forced to turn a blind eye to the president's actions. For the UAE, this is successful insurance against political risks, but for US democratic institutions, it is erosion from within.
The confrontation between Congress and the administration over the funding of ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) leads to functional paralysis of security agencies. Democrats use the budget lever to contain harsh migration policies, but the price is the safety of borders and transport infrastructure. This deepens the split in society and creates risks of terrorist attacks or collapse at the border, which will be used by both sides in the political struggle. For business, these are risks of disruptions in logistics and personnel hiring.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's lie about ties to Epstein makes him vulnerable to blackmail and political attacks. Having a compromised figure in a key economic post creates risks for US trade policy. It also shows a personnel crisis in the administration, where loyalty is valued above reputation. The likelihood of his resignation is growing, which will introduce turbulence into tariff policy and negotiations with partners. Markets will react nervously to any instability in the leadership of the economic bloc.
The US President's public attack on his own athletes for insufficient loyalty destroys the concept of "soft power" and national unity. Turning sport into an instrument of internal ideological struggle demoralizes society and reduces the country's international prestige. This is a signal that for the current administration there are no neutral zones—everything is subject to politicization. Brands and sponsors will face a difficult choice: supporting athletes may be perceived as disloyalty to the authorities. This intensifies cultural wars, distracting attention from real problems.